Successfully investing in the USA

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last updated on 16 June 2023 | reading time approx. 3 minutes

 

 

 

How do you assess the current economic situation in the USA?

With the COVID-19 pandemic largely under control, the United States' economy has experienced a significant recovery. In almost all areas, the economic stagnation observed in recent years has been overcome, and the previous decline has largely been offset. Economic growth in 2022 was 2.1 percent, and further growth of 1.6 percent is expected in 2023.

Economic development in recent years has led to a significant increase in employment. With 158.3 million peo­ple employed, the pre-pandemic employment level has been exceeded. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 per­cent in 2022.

Inflation reached a level of 6.5 percent in the US in 2022. The US Federal Reserve counteracted this with signi­ficant interest rate hikes, so that inflation of 4 percent is expected for 2023.

 

How would you describe the investment climate in the USA? Which sectors offer the largest potential?

Recent legislative initiatives such as the "Inflation Reduction Act" and the "Chips and Science Act", reflect the focus on investment and subsidy programs within the US economy. Above all, these measures are intended to strengthen the US as a production site and the future home of related industries.

In 2021, the focal points of the legislative initiatives increased environmental protection activities to trigger a far-reaching structural change. This focus has been seen across many sectors, primarily in the automotive and local computer chip industries in addition to industries associated with alternative energies.

Additionally, the recent economic stimulus packages will trigger increased consumer demand and foster steady growth. The significance of the legislative initiatives is primarily an investment incentive for the manufacturing industry with “local content” in the US. Furthermore, the importance of online trade increased drastically dur­ing the pandemic and has continued to rise. This growth has resulted in higher expectations for innovative plan­ning. 

In the short and medium term, there are clear opportunities in the American market. This applies particularly to the robustly managed, long-term oriented and equity-strong German medium-sized companies. In the long-term, the largest economy will continue to develop prosperously; meanwhile, the share of locally generated added value will also increase noticeably.
 

What challenges does a German entrepreneur face when it comes to engagement in the USA?

Although some of the trade and tariff barriers introduced by the previous administration still exist, many other obstacles have dissipated. For example, restrictions on the granting of entry or work permits are essentially no longer experienced and/or have been relaxed in most cases.

Due to the various measures to strengthen local production, a market entry in the US oftentimes results in higher investments, since a pure place of business in the US will no longer be sufficient in individual sectors. However, this can also lead to additional opportunities due to the financing power of German industry.

Furthermore, the search for not only qualified specialist and managerial staff, but also for qualified production staff, represents a major challenge for employers. This development will not change in the foreseeable future.
 

How do you rate the options for companies wanting to invest directly in the United States?

Several economic policies and the corresponding economic promotions will continue to be important in the US in the future. Examples include the "Inflation Reduction Act" and the "Chips and Science Act", which have a funding volume or tax reform volume of approximately 738 billion US dollar.

The different policy measures in the individual laws are working to strengthen the US domestic economy. The focus is especially on the forward-looking business initiatives, such as the green economy in all industrial sec­tors, and the domestic chip and semiconductor industry and their corresponding preliminary products.

Due to the efforts of the American government to strengthen domestic industry, there is clear potential for our German clients to participate in this focus on localization. However, a business presence is usually necessary to be involved in the future support programs of the United States government.
 

How do you think the USA will develop?

In consideration of the current US market environment and based on the government's known stimulation pro­jects, a continuation of the positive economic development is expected. Domestic demand, which has been very consistent over the years, along with industrial investment activities, indicate a favorable economic deve­lop­ment.

The massive economic stimulus programs will lead to an onshoring of supply chains. Furthermore, if they are designed competitively, they will result in significant potential for our German clients. The utilization of these options in the US domestic market can only be realized through market access with a local presence.

Due to the current inflation, there is no expectation for change in the taxation of companies. However, the US tax authorities will certainly increase their efforts to collect appropriate federal and state taxes from companies that do not have a local presence in the US working with trading partners in the country.

Experience demonstrates that German companies have been able to develop a solid standing in the market due to sustainable strategies within their US investments. As the largest and most secure economy, the US, and its long-term economic conditions, including diversification, innovation, and growth opportunities, remain attrac­tive to German companies aspiring to break into the US market. In consideration of past experiences, the con­tinuation of restriction on free trade, and current initiatives, engagement in the US requires constant moni­tor­ing. Nevertheless, the odds are clearly in favor of a successful engagement within the US economy.

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Nico Swart

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Matthias Amberg

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